Is something going around Madison County besides the seasonal sniffles?
Republican political operatives have a name for the suspected outbreak: The Blue Flu.
Whether it’s actually spreading or just a case of election jitters remains to be seen.
The symptoms? Nervous Republicans, unusually competitive races and candidates repeatedly reminding voters that Montgomery is a long way from Washington.
A few closely guarded polling numbers have been glimpsed, some whispered about in political circles, and absolutely none of them officially released. Whether they signal a full-blown outbreak of the blue flu or just a little Republican heartburn remains to be seen.
As if navigating the storm of national political headlines weren’t enough, Madison County’s Republican candidates got a little extra turbulence courtesy of their party’s gubernatorial nominee, U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, and his suggestion that newcomers to North Alabama were bringing socialist and communist thinking with them.
Coincidentally, quite a few North Alabama Republicans developed a remarkable ability to campaign without mentioning their top-of-the-ticket headliner, Coach.
State House and Senate races that Republicans once considered safely in the bag are now rumored to be uncomfortably close. In some cases, the whispers have Democrats running ahead, including candidates who haven’t even bothered to campaign.
These are the kinds of numbers that get passed around in hushed conversations, never officially released and occasionally improve with each retelling.
But when Republicans start worrying about Democrats who aren’t even campaigning, you have to wonder whether the blue flu is more contagious than anyone anticipated.
Then again, Alabama Republicans have seen a wave before.
In 2010, a historic red wave swept Republicans into control of the Legislature for the first time in 136 years, ending an era of Democratic dominance that stretched back to Reconstruction.
Could Madison County be seeing the first ripples of a blue wave?
The political chatter suggests something considerably smaller than the 2010 tsunami. Alabama is expected to firmly remain a Republican stronghold and one competitive county doesn’t make a statewide revolution.
But Madison County isn’t quite the same place it was 16 years ago.
Thousands of newcomers have arrived for jobs in defense, aerospace and technology. Some brought moving boxes. Others brought voting habits that make longtime Republican strategists reach for the antacids.
But don’t blame it all on the moving trucks. Some folks who’ve called Madison County home since County Line Road was nothing but gravel may be just as tired of political extremes as the people who arrived last Tuesday.
And then there’s Alabama’s straight-ticket voting, which can turn all those carefully crafted local campaign messages into a single filled-in oval.
So, is there really something to the blue flu?
Is Madison County’s political landscape changing, or are Republicans simply suffering from a particularly unpleasant case of preelection nerves?
We’re about to find out.
The polls opened bright and early at 7 a.m. this morning. And the official diagnosis will have to wait until after 7 p.m. when the polls close.
Of course on Wednesday morning, every political insider from Florence to Scottsboro will insist they saw it coming.
If Republicans hold on, they’ll tell you the blue flu was nothing but a bad rumor. If Democrats pull the upsets, they’ll swear the warning signs were there all along.
The only thing more contagious than the blue flu might be selective memory.
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